The Dirt on Canadian Housing Starts in 2025— And Why It Matters for You

As we settle into spring of 2025, there’s been a lot of talk around where the Canadian housing market is headed — especially with all eyes on affordability, inventory, and interest rates. One helpful indicator of how the market is doing: housing starts.

📊 Housing starts are defined as new residential builds that have officially broken ground, and they offer a sneak peek at how much housing supply we can expect in the months and years ahead.

So, what’s the story so far this year? And more importantly, what does it mean for you?

📈 A Slow Start to the Year

According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), January 2025 kicked off with some momentum — housing starts increased 3% over December 2024, showing that some builders were feeling cautiously optimistic.

February took a slight step back — starts dipped 4% from January, totalling around 229,000 units. While not a cause for concern, it’s a reminder that new housing supply isn’t rushing in just yet.

March continued this trend with a 3.3% decline from February, bringing the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) down to 214,155 units. Year-over-year, actual housing starts in centres with populations of 10,000 or more were down 12.5%, with 14,924 units recorded in March compared to 17,052 units in March 2024.

🏙️ Big Cities vs. 🏘️ Suburban and Small-City Markets

It’s true that most headlines tend to focus on what’s happening in big cities like Toronto and Vancouver — and for understandable reasons. Those markets house millions of people but also saw big declines in housing starts, with Toronto down a whopping 68% and Vancouver down 48% compared to February of last year. It’s of course possible (maybe even likely) that the rapidly increasing uncertainty in the market as of 2025 is impacting this, but it’s impossible to say for certain.  

On a brighter note, if you’re like most of my clients, you’re probably looking at homes in suburban communities and smaller cities outside the GTA — and that’s a very different story. 

In these markets, the pace of new construction has been more stable, and in some areas, builders are even ramping up to meet demand.

We’re seeing pockets of steady development in Ontario’s suburban areas all along the corridor stretching from Ottawa to Windsor including areas like Durham, Simcoe County, Guelph, and London — places where young families and first-time buyers are continuing to put down roots. That’s encouraging, especially as more people look for affordability without sacrificing quality of life. 

🔍 What This Means for Buyers and Homeowners

If you’re house hunting in a suburban or small-city market, the current pace of housing starts suggests that you’ll have some options — but competition isn’t going anywhere. In many of these communities, supply still isn’t keeping up with demand, so having a mortgage pre-approval in hand is going to give you a real edge.

📝Being ready with a pre-approval when the right listing comes up could make all the difference in landing your dream home.

And if you already own your home? The slower pace of new builds could help support your home’s value — that could be especially helpful if you’re considering refinancing, renovating, or even selling in the near future.

🤝 Here's How I Can Help

Whether you're a first-time buyer or planning your next move, I’m here to make sure your mortgage strategy lines up with today’s market — and your goals. I can help you:

✅ Understand how much home you can afford

✅ Get pre-approved at a competitive rate

✅ Navigate your financing options with confidence and zero pressure

📉 The market will continue to shift — but with a mortgage plan built for your lifestyle, your family, and your future, you can feel confident every step of the way.

Let’s find the right fit for you. 

📩 Send me a message or book a time here to chat.

—Melissa

Melissa Kuczepa, AMPC, Mortgage Agent Level 2

(905) 925-4762

melissa@mkmortgagesolutions.com

Mortgage Architects #12728